Nathaniel Bier
Nathaniel Bier
Nathaniel Bier and a fellow firefighter kneeling in bunker gear in front of a live-fire training structure
Two dogs walking along a waterside path
Nathaniel Bier with friends in tails at Eton

Nathaniel Bier

Hi! I’m Nathaniel, but most people call me Nate.

I grew up between London and Singapore and just started my freshman year at Columbia, where I’m studying applied mathematics. Most of my interests revolve around how to measure and price uncertainty, whether in prediction markets, sports betting or equities portfolios.

The rest of the time, I love playing and watching football (soccer, if you must), losing money to my friends at poker, mixing house music and FaceTiming my dogs back in Singapore.

Projects

01arbi Coming SoonA tool that spots mispricing between correlated (but not equivalent) prediction markets, because I can’t afford however many Mac minis it would take to beat the professionals.
02Columbia University Padel Club Co-founderStarted with my roommate, with weekly sessions for Columbia students and a team now competing in collegiate tournaments. Follow us @columbiapadelclub.

Writing

03Behavioural Biases and Irrational Decision-Making in Sports Betting Curieux Academic Journal Tested whether bettors undervalue and sportsbooks underprice psychologically unfavourable results, using data scraped from 1,900 Premier League matches.
04Against the Spread Substack Tracking and posting my bets and theses, now branching out from football into the NBA and NFL, mostly with same-game parlays and a few longshots and outrights sprinkled in.
05The Chronicle EditorEdited and wrote for Eton’s main and oldest school publication.
06The Dugout FounderFounded a school sports magazine in 2023 and hosted live discussions and debates.

Service

07Singapore Civil Defence Force LieutenantCommissioned as a senior officer and commanded a shift at Alexandra Fire Station. Attended fires, cardiac arrests, road traffic accidents and rescue incidents. The hardest and most rewarding two years of my life.Here’s what it looked like ▸

Previously

08Eton College & Holyport College Investment Club Senior AnalystCovered the technology sector for a student-run fund managing a live $50,000 portfolio.
09David Charles Cup FounderCreated an annual charity football tournament and raised $5,000 for Heart Research UK.
10Fareast Mercantile Company Finance InternConsumer goods import and export distributor in Accra, Ghana.